PENSION ENTITLEMENTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF CROATIA, 2021

Accrued-to-date pension entitlements in the Republic of Croatia at the end of 2021 were estimated in accordance with the Eurostat methodological guidelines. For social security pension schemes, three discount rates were applied: 4% for the basic scenario, and 3% and 5% for the sensitivity analysis. According to the basic scenario of 4%, pension entitlements (column H, row 10 in tables 1, 2 and 3) were estimated at 1 409.20 billion kuna or 320.22% of GDP. Applying the discount rates of 3% and 5%, pension entitlements were estimated at 1 668.56 billion kuna or 379.16% of GDP, and 1 208.02 billion kuna or 274.50% of GDP, respectively. The sensitivity analysis indicates that if the discount rate is changed by one percentage point, estimated social security pension schemes will change by more than 200 billion kuna. Additionally, pension entitlements according to defined contribution schemes (column A, row 10 in tables 1, 2 and 3) were estimated at 134.50 billion kuna. Total pension entitlements amounted to 1 543.70 billion kuna at a discount rate of 4%, 1 803.06 billion kuna at a discount rate of 3% and 1 342.53 billion kuna at a discount rate of 5%.

NOTES ON METHODOLOGY

Legal basis

Accrued-to-date pension entitlements are defined in Regulation (EU) No 549/2013 and introduced by the European System of Accounts 2010. The pension entitlements are compiled in the Supplementary table on accrued-to-date pension entitlements in social insurance (Table 29), which is a structured table showing the initial (at the beginning of the year, row 1) and the final (at the end of the year, row 10) stock of pension entitlements along with their flows (rows 2 to 9). In addition to the rows, Table 29 also contains columns, of which only A (the second pillar) and H (the first pillar) refer to the Republic of Croatia, while the third pillar is excluded from the estimation procedure. All transactions in Table 29 are recorded in gross amounts, that is, they include taxes and service charges.

Calculation methods and data sources

The calculation is made in two parts: for defined contribution schemes (column A) and for social security pension schemes (column H). The main data sources for column A, that is, for defined contribution schemes are: REGOS (rows 2.1, 2.3, 4 and 6), HANFA (rows 1, 2.4, 2.5 and 10) and RMOD and HRMOD (row 4), while row 8 was obtained as a residual. Unlike column A, the calculation for column H is based on data sources from the Ministry of Finance (data for social security pension schemes) and on the actuarial modelling (rows 1, 2.4, 3, 7 and 10 in Table 29) for projections for the period of one hundred years, whereby the calculation procedure is divided by sex, pension type for pensioners and current contributors. The input parameters of the model are discount rate, wage growth, inflation, mortality rates (taken over from the Eurostat population projections – EUROPOP 2021) and retirement age in accordance with the national legislation.

Published by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, Zagreb, Ilica 3, P. O. B. 80
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Persons responsible:
Suzana Šamec, Director of Macroeconomic Statistics Directorate
Lidija Brković, Director General

Prepared by:
Jelena Kelebuh Arambašić, Igor Knež and Vedran Ivković

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