RETAIL TRADE, OCTOBER 2023

 

In October 2023, the retail trade turnover increased in real terms both at the monthly and the annual level.

At the monthly level, the retail trade turnover of food and non-food products increased

In October 2023, the total seasonally and working-day adjusted deflated retail trade turnover of all business entities engaged in this activity, irrespective of their main activity, was in real terms 1.1% higher than in September 2023. Out of this, the retail trade turnover of food products increased by 0.3%, while the retail trade turnover of non-food products (except for automotive fuels and lubricants) increased by 5.8%.

At the annual level, the retail trade turnover in real terms recorded increase seventh month in a row

In October 2023, compared to the same month of the previous year, the working-day adjusted retail trade turnover increased in real terms by 6.5%. Out of this, the retail trade turnover of food, beverages and tobacco increased by 4.8%, while the retail trade turnover of non-food products (except for automotive fuels and lubricants) increased by 10.7%.

In the first 10 months of 2023, the working-day adjusted retail trade turnover increased by 2.9% in real terms compared to the same period of the previous year.

Sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages, and tobacco predominating had the largest impact on the increase in nominal turnover

In October 2023, according to gross, unadjusted indices, all of 11 trade branches recorded an increase in turnover, compared to the same month of the previous year.

The largest impact on the increase in the nominal turnover in October 2023 compared to the same month of the previous year, according to gross, unadjusted indices, was recorded in the following trade branches: Non-specialised stores with food, beverages and tobacco predominating, with a rise in turnover of 12.3% and an impact on the total turnover of 4.2%, Dispensing chemists, medical and orthopaedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles, with a rise in turnover of 23.9% and an impact on the total turnover of 1.9%, Motor vehicles, parts and accessories for motor vehicles, with a rise in turnover of 41.6% and an impact on the total turnover of 1.4%, and Automotive fuels and lubricants with a rise in turnover of 7.1% and an impact on the total turnover also of 1.4%. Accordingly, the total gross retail trade turnover increased in nominal terms by 12.9% compared to the same month of the previous year.

The total turnover from retailers (NKD division 47)¹⁾ increased in real terms at the monthly and the annual level

The total seasonally and working-day adjusted deflated turnover generated by all business entities with retail trade as their main activity (classified in division 47 of the NKD 2007) was in real terms 3.2% higher in October 2023 than in September 2023.

Their total working-day adjusted turnover was in real terms 2.8% higher in October 2023 than in October 2022, whereas it was in real terms 2.3% lower in the first 10 months compared to the same period of the previous year.

 

1) The total turnover from retailers (NKD division 47) is the turnover generated by all business entities with retail trade as their main activity and are classified in division 47 of the NKD 2007.

 

PNG

I SEASONALLY AND WORKING-DAY ADJUSTED INDICATORS¹⁾

II GROSS, NON-ADJUSTED INDICATORS

 

NOTES ON METHODOLOGY

Notice

Time series on retail trade turnover, starting with 2005, and time series on total turnover from retailers (NKD division 47), starting with 2000, are available in Excel tables on the website of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics within the Databases under the titles STS Databases and PC-Axis Databases, and within Statistics in Line under the title Economy – Basic Indicators.

Precise dissemination dates are listed in the Calendar of Statistical Data Issues for 2023, which is available on the website of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics.

Sources and methods of data collection

The data are based on the Monthly Report on Retail Trade (TRG-1 form) and administrative data sources (Tax Administration fiscalisation file).

The data are collected via a web-based application (the so-called CAWI). The reporting units enter data directly into the TRG-1 e-form, which is available on the Data Dissemination and Collection Portal of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics at https://podaci.dzs.hr/hr/obrasci/trgovina-i-ostale-usluge/. The period for data collection ranges each month, as a rule, between the 1^st and the 20^th day in a month for the previous reference month data.

The methodology for this survey is based on Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 (Annex C), Regulation (EC) No. 1158/2005 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 6 July 2005 amending Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics, Commission Regulation (EC) No. 1503/06 of 28 September 2006 implementing and amending Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics as regards definitions of variables, list of variables and frequency of data compilation, Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on European business statistics, repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics, and the Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1197 of 30 July 2020 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics repealing ten legal acts in the field of business statistics.

This survey is conducted on the basis of the Official Statistics Act (NN, No. 25/20).

Coverage and comparability

The observation units are business entities (legal entities and tradesmen) registered in retail trade as their main activity (division 47 of the NKD 2007) as well as selected business entities registered in other activities if performing retail trade activities.

The survey is carried out by using the sampling method. The sample frame consists of business entities and parts thereof registered in the Register of Business Entities of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Since 2021, the sample selection frame has been expanded using an administrative data source (Tax Administration fiscalisation file).

Business entities are divided by their main activity on the basis of the NKD 2007 (NN, Nos 58/07 and 123/08). By size, they are divided into classes from 1 to 7.

The criterion for determining the size of a business entity is the number of persons in employment. Business entities of size 1 are those employing 0 – 4 persons, of size 2 those employing 5 – 9 persons, of size 3 those employing 10 – 19 persons, of size 4 those employing 20 – 49 persons, of size 5 those employing 50 – 99 persons, of size 6 those employing 100 – 249 persons and of size 7 those employing 250 and more persons. For business entities engaged primarily in non-trade activities, the number of persons in employment in trade activities is taken into account.

The method used to select the sample is the cut-off method. The sample covers all business entities employing 10 and more persons as well as business entities selected by using cut-off method employing less than 10 persons and covering 70% of the total turnover in each class of division 47 of the NKD 2007. Due to the application of the cut-off method for selecting the sample, the standard error and the coefficient of variation are not calculated.

Seasonally and working-day adjustment method

Since 2016, in the process of seasonal adjustment the software package JDemetra+ and X13 ARIMA method has been used. This process identifies and assesses seasonal and working-day effects in time series by using statistical models and procedures.

The revision of the previously published seasonally and working-day adjusted indices is due to several causes. The most common cause is the change in estimated parameters of existing statistical models while conducting new estimates, which occurs due to new observations. Other causes are changes in source data or in applied statistical models.

Calendar effects have a significant impact on time series movement, the most common of which are the effect of moving holidays, the effect of the leap year and the effect of working days.

Notice concerning the terminology

In the Croatian language, the term ''kalendarsko prilagođavanje'' (calendar adjustment) is not the literal translation of the term ''working-day adjustment'' in English, which means “adjustment for the number of working days''. It is used in order to prevent misunderstandings by national users.

The term ''working-day adjustment'' in short-term business statistics actually refers to calendar adjustment, but due to specific Eurostat's requirements for short-term statistics, the term ''working-day adjustment'' is used instead.

Seasonally and working-day adjusted indices

The seasonally and working-day adjusted indices imply that the gross indices are adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects. Indices adjusted in that way and associated rates of change in two consecutive observations are used to compare data with data from the previous month.

In line with the above mentioned, month-on-month growth rates of turnover calculated on the basis of seasonally and working-day adjusted indices are presented and interpreted (the comparison between the indices of the current reporting month with the indices of the previous reporting month) in the monthly comparison (First Release, part I, tables 1 and 3).

Working-day adjusted indices

Working-day adjusted indices imply that the gross indices are adjusted only for calendar effects. Indices adjusted in that way and associated inter-annual rates of change are used to compare data with data from the same month of the previous year.

In line with the above mentioned, year-on-year growth rates of the volume of turnover calculated on the basis of working-day adjusted indices are presented and interpreted (comparison between indices of the reporting month with the indices of the same reporting month of the previous year) in the annual comparison (First Release, part I, tables 2 and 4).

Trend indices

Time series of trend indices are released with each revision of seasonally adjusted data in Excel tables on the website of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics within the Databases under the titles STS Databases and PC-Axis Databases, and within Statistics in Line under the title Economy – Basic Indicators.

Gross indices

In order to sustain the consistency and continuity with the previously released data, indices continue to be presented as gross, unadjusted indices in the same way as before (First Release, part II, tables 1 and 2).

A part of the data from this survey (those that refer to the total turnover of business entities with the main activity registered in division 47 of the NKD 2007) are regularly sent to Eurostat every month (in the form of value and volume gross, seasonally and working-day adjusted indices on the basis of 2015). They are available on Eurostat’s web-site together with the indicators of other EU Member States they are comparable with.

Definitions

Turnover is the total value of all goods sold and services provided on the market in a month, irrespective of whether paid up or not. It also includes the value added tax.

The retail trade turnover is presented in relation to:

− the total turnover from retailers (NKD division 47) is a turnover generated by all business entities with retail trade as their main activity and are classified in division 47 of the NKD 2007

− the retail trade turnover is a turnover generated by all business entities engaged in this activity, irrespective of their registered main activity.

The results are shown in the form of nominal (value indices) and real indices (volume indices).

Value indices show the turnover movements in current prices.

Volume indices are calculated by deflating the value indices by the retail trade price indices of goods (without electricity and water distribution) according to the consumer price indices.

Retail trade branches

Retail trade branches represent the actual predominant assortment of sales in the retail trade, which is also determined according to the NKD 2007.

 

Abbreviations

CAWI	computer-assisted web interview
EC	European Community
EU	European Union
Eurostat	Statistical Office of the European Union
NKD 2007	National Classification of Activities, 2007 version
NN	Narodne novine, official gazette of the Republic of Croatia
Symbols
-	no occurrence
0,0	value not zero but less than 0.05 of the unit of measure used

 

The survey whose data are published in this First Release has been conducted with the financial assistance of the European Union. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union.

 

Published by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, Zagreb, Ilica 3, P. O. B. 80
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Persons responsible:
Milenka Primorac Čačić, Director of Business Statistics Directorate
Lidija Brković, Director General

Prepared by:
Josipa Kalčić Ivanić, Ljiljanka Boras and Sanja Godec

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