RETAIL TRADE, OCTOBER 2021

In October 2021, the retail trade turnover in real terms increased at the annual level, but decreased at the monthly level.

At the monthly level, the retail trade turnover of food products and non-food products increased

In October 2021, the total seasonally and working-day adjusted deflated retail trade turnover of all business entities engaged in this activity, irrespective of their main activity, in real terms decreased by 2.1% compared to September 2021. Out of that, the retail trade turnover of food products increased by 1.5% and the retail trade turnover of non-food products (except of automotive fuels and lubricants) by 1.7%.

Real turnover from retail trade continued to increase for the ninth month in a row at the annual level

In October 2021, compared to the same month of the previous year, the working-day adjusted retail trade turnover increased in real terms by 9.2%.

Out of that, the retail trade turnover of food, beverages and tobacco increased by 4.0% and the retail trade turnover of non-food products (except of automotive fuels and lubricants) by 8.4%.

In the first ten months, the working-day adjusted retail trade turnover in real terms increased by 13.1% compared to the same period of the previous year.

The sale of automotive fuels and lubricants had the largest effect on the increase in turnover

In October 2021, compared to the same month of the previous year, according to gross, unadjusted indices all eleven trade branches achieve increase in the turnover.

The largest impact on the increase in the nominal turnover in October 2021 compared to the same month of the previous year, according to gross, unadjusted indices, came from the following trade branches: Automotive fuels and lubricants with a rise in turnover of 37.1% and an impact on the total trade turnover of 6.7%, and Non-specialised stores with food, beverages and tobacco predominating with a rise in turnover of 8.0% and an impact on the total turnover of 2.7%. Accordingly, the total gross retail trade turnover increased by 13.9% in nominal terms compared to the same month of the previous year.

The total turnover from retailers (NKD division 47)¹⁾ increased in real terms at the annual level, but decreased at the monthly level

In October 2021, the total seasonally and working-day adjusted deflated turnover generated by all business entities with retail trade as their main activity (classified in division 47 of the NKD 2007.) was in real terms 1.9% lower than in September 2021.

Their total turnover, working-day adjusted, was in real terms 8.7% higher than in October 2020, while in the first ten months it was in real terms 12.7% higher than in the same period of the previous year.

1) The total turnover from retailers (NKD division 47) is the turnover generated by all business entities with retail trade as their main activity and are classified in division 47 of the NKD 2007.

 

PNG

I. SEASONALLY AND WORKING-DAY ADJUSTED INDICATORS¹⁾

II. GROSS, NON-ADJUSTED INDICATORS

III. STANDARD ERROR AND COEFFICIENT OF VARIANCE FOR TURNOVER CHAIN INDEX

 

NOTES ON METHODOLOGY

Notice

Time series on retail trade turnover, starting with 2005, and time series on total turnover from retailers (NKD division 47), starting with 2000, are available in Excel tables on the website of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics within the Databases under the titles STS Databases and PC-Axis Databases, and within Statistics in Line under the title Economy – Basic Indicators.

Precise dissemination dates are listed in the Calendar of Statistical Data Issues for 2021, which is available on the web site of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics www.dzs.hr.

Sources and methods of data collection

The data are based on the Monthly Report on Retail Trade (TRG-1 form) and administrative data sources (Tax Administration fiscalisation file).

The data are collected via a web-based application (the so-called CAWI). The reporting units enter data directly into the TRG-1 form, which is available on the website of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics at www.dzs.hr. The period for data collection ranges each month, as a rule, between the 1^st and the 20^th day in a month for the previous reference month data.

The methodology for this survey is based on Council Regulations (EC) Nos 1165/98 (Annex C), 1158/05 and 1503/06 concerning short-term statistics, Regulation (EU) No. 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on European business statistics, repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics and the Commission Regulation (EU) No. 2020/1197.

This survey is conducted on the basis of the Official Statistics Act (NN, No. 25/20).

Coverage and comparability

The observation units are business entities (legal entities and tradesmen) registered in retail trade as their main activity (division 47 of the NKD 2007.) as well as selected business entities registered in other activities if performing retail trade activities.

The survey is carried out by using the sampling method. The sample frame consists of business entities and parts thereof registered in the Register of Business Entities of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. In 2021, the sample selection frame was expanded using an administrative data source (Tax Administration fiscalisation file).

The sample is divided into strata according to the main activity and the size of a business entity. Business entities are divided by their main activity on the basis of the NKD 2007. (NN, Nos 58/07 and 123/08). By size, they are divided into classes from 1 to 7.

The criterion for determining the size of a business entity is the number of persons in employment. Business entities of size 1 are those employing 0 – 4 persons, of size 2 those employing 5 – 9 persons, of size 3 those employing 10 – 19 persons, of size 4 those employing 20 – 49 persons, of size 5 those employing 50 – 99 persons, of size 6 those employing 100 – 249 persons and of size 7 those employing 250 and more persons. For business entities engaged primarily in non-trade activities, the number of persons in employment in trade activities is taken into account.

The sample covers all business entities employing 10 and more persons as well as business entities employing less than 10 persons selected by using the random sample method.

Seasonal and working-day adjustment method

Since 2016, in the process of seasonal adjustment the software package JDemetra+ and X13 ARIMA method has been used. This process identifies and assesses seasonal and working-day effects in time series by using statistical models and procedures.

The revision of the previously published seasonally and working-day adjusted indices is due to several causes. The most common cause is the change in estimated parameters of existing statistical models while conducting new estimates, which occurs due to new observations. Other causes are changes in source data or in applied statistical models.

Calendar effects have a significant impact on time series movement, the most common of which are the effect of moving holidays, the effect of the leap year and the effect of working days.

Notice concerning the terminology

In Croatian language, the term “kalendarsko prilagođavanje” (calendar adjustment) is not the literal translation of the term “working-day adjustment” in English, which means “adjustment for the number of working days”. It is used in order to prevent misunderstandings by national users.

The term “working-day adjustment” in short-term business statistics actually refers to calendar adjustment, but due to specific Eurostat's requirements for short-term statistics, the term “working-day adjustment” is used instead.

Seasonally and working-day adjusted indices

The seasonally and working-day adjusted indices imply that the gross indices are adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects. Indices adjusted in that way and associated rates of change in two consecutive observations are used to compare data with data from the previous month.

In line with the above mentioned, month-on-month growth rates of turnover calculated on the basis of seasonally and working-day adjusted indices are presented and interpreted (the comparison between the indices of the current reporting month with the indices of the previous reporting month) in the monthly comparison (First Release, part I., tables 1. and 3.).

Working-day adjusted indices

Working-day adjusted indices imply that the gross indices are adjusted only for calendar effects. Indices adjusted in that way and associated inter-annual rates of change are used to compare data with data from the same month of the previous year.

In line with the above mentioned, year-on-year growth rates of the volume of turnover calculated on the basis of working-day adjusted indices are presented and interpreted (comparison between indices of the reporting month with the indices of the same reporting month of the previous year) in the annual comparison (First Release, part I., tables 2. and 4.).

Gross indices

In order to sustain the consistency and continuity with the previously released data, indices continue to be presented as gross, unadjusted indices in the same way as before (First Release, part II., tables 1. and 2.).

A part of the data from this survey (those that refer to the total turnover of business entities with the main activity registered in division 47 of the NKD 2007.) are regularly sent to Eurostat every month (in the form of value and volume gross, seasonally and working-day adjusted indices on the basis of 2015). They are available on Eurostat’s web site: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat together with the indicators of other EU Member States they are comparable with.

Definitions

Turnover is the total value of all goods sold and services provided on the market in a month, irrespective of whether paid up or not. It also includes the value added tax.

The retail trade turnover is presented in relation to:

-   the total turnover from retailers (NKD division 47) is a turnover generated by all business entities with retail trade as their main activity and are classified in division 47 of the NKD 2007.

-   the retail trade turnover is a turnover generated by all business entities engaged in this activity, irrespective of their registered main activity.

The results are shown in the form of nominal (value indices) and real indices (volume indices).

Value indices show the turnover movements in current prices.

Volume indices are calculated by deflating the value indices by the retail trade price indices of goods (without electricity and water distribution) according to the consumer price indices.

Retail trade branches

Retail trade branches represent the actual predominant assortment of sales in the retail trade, which is also determined according to the NKD 2007.

 

Abbreviations

CAWI	computer-assisted web interview
EC	European Community
EU	European Union
Eurostat	Statistical Office of the European Communities
NKD 2007.	National Classification of Activities, 2007 version
NN	Narodne novine, official gazette of the Republic of Croatia
Symbols
-	no occurrence
0.0	value not zero but less than 0.05 of the unit of measure used

 

 

The survey whose data are published in this First Release has been conducted with the financial assistance of the European Union. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union.

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Persons responsible:
Milenka Primorac Čačić, Director of Business Statistics Directorate
Lidija Brković, Director General

Prepared by: Josipa Kalčić Ivanić, Ljiljanka Boras and Sanja Godec

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