FORECAST OF AGRICULTURAL PRICE INDICES, 2021

In 2021, the prices of agricultural goods output are expected to grow compared both to 2015 and to the previous year. As compared to the previous year, an increase in the prices of crop output and a decrease in the prices of animal products output are expected.

As compared to the previous year, the prices of crop output are expected to increase by 19.8%, with the increase in the prices in all groups, except in the prices of potatoes (including seeds). The prices of livestock and animal products could decrease by 0.5%. The prices of cattle, poultry and milk are expected to increase, while the prices of pigs should decrease compared to 2020.

Concerning the prices of goods and services currently consumed in agriculture, it is expected that they will increase by 8.4% in the current year, as compared to the base 2015 and by 16.1% compared to the previous year.

NOTES ON METHODOLOGY

Sources and methods of data collection

The forecast of price indices in agriculture has been calculated for 2021 on the basis of changes in the prices of agricultural goods output in the period from January to September of the current year and the estimation of changes in the prices for the period from October to December.

The prices used for the calculation of the forecast for the first nine months of 2021 were obtained from the quarterly surveys on the purchase and sale of agricultural products as well as from other surveys of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, administrative data of the Ministry of Agriculture and other administrative sources.

Coverage

The forecast was done at the level of the Republic of Croatia.

The base year for the calculation of the price indices forecast is 2015.

Definitions

Price indices forecast of agricultural goods output comprises crop and animal output (livestock, poultry and animal products).

Input I includes goods and services currently consumed in agriculture.

Goods are all products except services.

Services comprise the maintenance of materials (machines and materials), agricultural buildings and other services.

The survey whose data are published in this First Release has been conducted with the financial assistance of the European Union. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union.

Published by the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, Zagreb, Ilica 3, P. O. B. 80.
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Suzana Šamec, Director of Macroeconomic Statistics Directorate
Lidija Brković, Director General

Prepared by: Matej Pejković and Ivan Dujman

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